And specific remarks that were prepared for this press conference I would like on behalf of the IMF and on our personal we have to express our sympathy our condolences to the people of Indonesia and certainly to the families who’ve suffered losses and who are in distress and I was myself in Lombok on on Monday my team was in.
Sulawesi the day before and we.
Could see on the ground the impact and the devastation but we could also see the resilience the courage the determination of the people and certainly as an institution as a community we are trying to to help in whichever way we can and as I said in in Bellinis I hope IMF birthday Ori bersama Ando then.
I know that there are some Indonesians in the room so that spirit of solidarity and courage and resilience certainly demonstrate also how a country can grapple with difficult economic circumstances and do that with with success certainly Indonesia is a clear indication of that you will have seen not only the global policy agenda that.
Was on your chair but you have also heard from our team yesterday and the day before and the World Economic Outlook the gfs are the fiscal monitor and the forecast that we have as well as the risks that we see on the horizon so what I would like to do.
Is sort of identify three questions and and then you can ask any questions that you want to ask the first question that I want to for us to consider is wonder whether the economy as it is.
And based on the documents that you’ve seen in.
The last couple of days is that economy strong but I think the answer to that is yes.
The economy is strong at the moment.
We expect growth to remain steady at three point seven percent this year and next but the real.
Question is is the economy strong enough and to that our answer is probably not enough because we clearly see that growth has plateaued if three years in a row it is at 3.7 percent and we also see that that growth is more than evenly allocated around the world moreover some of the risks that we have highlighted particularly at our.
Spring meeting in April have now begun to materialize especially from the rising trade barriers and if these tensions were to escalate the global economy would take a significant hit so our strong recommendation is to de-escalate those tensions and work toward a global trade system that is stronger that is fairer and that is fit for purpose and fit for the future because if services are not sufficiently covered if digital transformation is not covered in those in that trade framework then we’re missing the.
Point and we’re probably losing out on productivity gains that we could have the second question that I want to ask is is the economy as it stands now safe enough and the bottom line is that ten years after the great financial crisis of the global financial crisis we are safer and measures have been taken but we’re not safe enough with global and public debt private and public at an all-time high any slight.
Change in the wind could provoke capital outflows and economic instability in emerging markets as we see it in some of those markets to.
Guard against this our recommendation is certainly to encourage countries to have the right combination of domestic policies using all the tools or the arrows that they have and for global policies to also reflect those requirements of safety we also need to press ahead with the financial regulatory agenda and resist the risk of backsliding there’s been a lot.
Of progress in the last decade but also an unfinished agenda combined with the added challenges from continued financial innovation which has its upside but also its downside a safer global economy also means tackling the issue of sustainability the existence all threats of climate change and we know from work that was done last year in particular at the time of the.
World Economic Outlook that low-income countries and.
Low-lying countries are the first.
Victims of such development and we know from having heard from the Uni PCC that time is of the essence and that we cannot afford to waste it the third question which is you know for the medium to.
Is are the benefits of growth actually shared enough for our global economy to continue to grow in a sustainable fashion and the answer to that is in our view that.
The benefits of stronger growth are not being shared enough excessive inequality as our research has demonstrated in the last few.
Years excessive inequality whether it is produced by technology by trade by integration by policies favoring capital over Labor is magnifying economic and social tensions especially in advanced economies and.
That is why we need policies and.
Reforms that not only boost growth but do so in a manner that it that is inclusive and sustainable so as.
My curtain-raiser speech last week we need to steer.
The boat not let it drift and that means using the current growth momentum because we still have it to implement the right policy actions in the areas that I have just outlined deescalate trade tensions fix the system don’t break it the right policy mix and that inclusive growth which requires both short and longer term policies but to achieve these goals we need a stronger international cooperation as.
Well I’m going to quote Bellini again and I will promise to translate this time men yamaraja which means that everyone is a brother or a sister of.
The other so we are joining hands and we are on that same boat which should be steered and not drift so we would like to take that to heart and with that I’m happy to take.
Your questions thank you thank you very much I see thank you very much Madame Lagarde let me let us begin with our hosts and begin with the lady and it’s Metro TV thank you Thank You Jerry good morning Madame Lagarde so I have two questions first of all regarding the tightening of global financial condition and the trade war that affects many countries including Indonesia.
Do you have any projection of how long this behavior will go on and what’s best to respond like policy respond given some Filner abilities that emerging countries like Indonesia might possess that’s the first question and the second will be how do you see Indonesian resilience to deal with.
External shock how have you seen that we evolved since 20 years ago thank.